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Is the Volatility Over? The BIG Picture:

Is the Volatility Over? The BIG Picture:

stock market investing
Matt Ristuccia, MBA, CFA

Matt Ristuccia, MBA, CFA

Matt is Co-Chief Investment Officer

  • We are likely in a cyclical (short-term) bear market within a long-term (secular) bull market in stocks:
  • Birds Eye View: What we have seen in equities over the last year is in line with historical bear markets within secular bull markets in terms of time and percent loss (Source: Ned Davis Research):
  • But Didn’t Markets Peak in October? No!  Most markets peaked in January of 2018.  That is a full year of bear markets for most indices!
  • A Retest: It would also be in line with history to see markets retest lows before the start a cyclical bull.
  • History rhymes but does not repeat: We have had one of the longest expansions in history, which gives pause to the call that the next bull market will be as strong as the average.
  • When to buy? Drawdowns greater than 20%-25% usually include either high valuations/major asset bubbles, an aggressive Fed, and/or an oil shock.  None of that exists today.  Therefore, if we retest lows set in December we are likely buyers. 
  • Risks: Main risk today is greater than expected deterioration in the economy due to higher than average geopolitical risk and potential policy errors.

DISCLOSURE: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Charts presented in this article are not indicative of the past or future performance of any Argent Wealth Management strategy. This article has been distributed for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation or offer of any particular security or investment strategy. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Argent Wealth Management. 

Argent Wealth Management is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Registered Investment Advisor © 2018 Argent Wealth Management, LLC. All rights reserved.

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